What price, economy?

A lot of people seem to consider greenhouse emissions consideration numero uno in guiding the direction in which automakers need to go in the future. As a happy coincidence, lower carbon dioxide emissions also equate to greater fuel economy.

And yet, the alternatives available to consumers to lower emissions and increase economy are either unpalatable to the common consumer or too expensive.

A car like the Suzuki Alto will get you up to and over the 30 km/l mark, but concerns over safety and useable space turn off buyers looking for something more like their Toyota Corolla.

A Toyota Prius will also do over 30 km/l, but it's twice as expensive as said Corolla, as well.

In Europe, buyers have long had the diesel option, yet locally, diesel cars are the exception, rather than the norm. While modern common rail diesel SUVs and compact SUVs are quite popular, diesel cars are less so. The trouble is that modern diesel cars cost more than their gasoline counterparts. Only Hyundai and Ford are bothering to attack this market. While Ford has the benefit of a local factory, which gets them tax breaks, Hyundai has to make do with CBU (completely built up) units from Korea.

Which is why the Elantra never really got off the ground. Will the i30 be any different? One would hope so. The i30 doesn't break any new ground as a motor vehicle per se, but the economy of that 1.6 liter diesel cannot be denied.

EDIT: As an aside: Why do people always seem to think that journalist review economy is any different from user economy? It's not like we go out of our way to game a car's economy to make it look great. Far from it, in fact. Most "motoring journalists" drive like maniacs.

Just because I get higher numbers than you doesn't mean I don't know anything about measuring economy (in fact, quite the opposite)... it just means my route is less congested than yours and that I drive gentler.

No two people will ever get the same economy. I don't get the same economy on different days. On the Focus TDCi, for example, I got as low as 7 km/l on one 3 kilometer school run (though this was done long after the review), averages of 11-13 km/l in traffic on our regular 20 kilometer commute, 9-11 km/l in heavy traffic on a 15 kilometer trip, and 20 km/l on the highway.

Some people see the highway numbers, do a run in rush hour traffic, taking an hour to go just two or three kilomters, and think we're pulling these numbers out of our butts. We're not. Your driving route sucks. Buy a bicycle and get over it.

Seriously... unless you're driving for little kids or old ladies... what's wrong with walking or biking?

How badly does smuggling hurt the Philippine car market?

This came up in an online debate a while back. And when the subject comes up, people always point to the 2003 numbers, which show that over 50% of "new" cars registered in the Philippines were not sold by the local Car Manufacturer's Association (CAMPI). Since I heard that, I figured I'd look it up.

Citation for article in question (link).

2003 was the first year after the ban on vehicle importation via the Subic Freeport. Thus the built-up stockpile of "legal" imports was still incredibly large. This helps explain the large numbers, in part. But more on that later.

Yet there are still complaints of "technical smuggling". So I decided to find out what the current figures are.

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CAMPI* production figures: (link)

1,219 Truck/Bus
2027 Light trucks (includes large SUVs, but also cargo trucks)
52708 LCV (light commercial vehicles, includes small SUVs and pickups)
30,262 AUV
46,228 Passenger cars

Total: 132,444

*does not include assembled Jeepneys, Multi-cab Jeepney conversions, products from smaller manufacturers (Norkis, Chery, Chana, Foton, Haima, ectera) and various "legal" grey market brand-new imports

If we exclude trucks and buses, which are exempted from the import ban, we get a figure closer to this:

CAMPI Total: 131,225

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LTO Registrations: 2009* (link)

2,833 Trailer
2,679 Bus
18,711 Truck

31,516 SUV
83,645 Commercial

46,038 Passenger Cars

Total: 185,422

*May not accurately reflect total number of "new" cars on the road due to delays in registration, double-registration, dropping of commercial plates for private and vice-versa, re-registration of carnapped vehicles with false papers, and the fact that some smuggled vehicles will not be registered.

If we exclude trucks and buses, which are exempted from the import ban, we get a figure closer to this:

LTO Registrations, Total: 161,199

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Discrepancy between LTO and CAMPI figures:

LTO: 161,199
CAMPI: 132,444

Difference: 29,974

Granted, neither figures are completely accurate, but it gives us a ballpark figure to work with.

Now, CAMPI is composed of 18 automakers, yet there are no separate figures for Chery, CATS, Chana, Foton, FAW, Greatwall, Norkis, Motor Image and other small players are not yet included in the 2009 report. Also not included are locally assembled vehicles and legal brand new imports sold by distributors like Pitstop, Emperor and other concerns.

Let's say CATS has sales of around 200-400, Motor Image around 600, Chery maybe around 600 or so. Foton, FAW, Chana, Norkis and Greatwall are too small (right now) to matter... but maybe sell around 200-400 altogether. Add legal brand-new imports by small shops and OFW-imported vehicles, and a conservative estimate of these "non-smuggled" registrations is around 3000 vehicles. (may be higher, but NOBODY posts statistics regarding returning OFW vehicle importation and backyard assemblers)

Difference: 26,974 (approx.)

Which is a large number, certainly, but far from the over 100,000 vehicle discrepancy from 2003.

CAMPI 2003 Figures (link)

Part of that huge discrepancy is undoubtedly due to the legality of Subic Imports. Sales of legally imported Subic vehicles did not stop in 2003 after the ban, since there was a large backlog of these vehicles on importers lots.

Part of it can also be attributed to the difference in make-up of the CAMPI. Ford-Mazda only joined recently, and they're good for around 8000 units a year. HARI was admitted in 2004 and they're good (currently) for around 11,000 units a year. Before HARI was incorporated... and even today, imported brand-new Starexes were a hot item on the market.

Hyundai Automotive Resources, Inc. History (link)

It's interesting to note that 2003 was an especially good year for AUVs, with 2003 sales exceeding that of 2009 sales by nearly 9000 units (for this purpose, the absence of Ford doesn't matter... all three major AUV manufacturers are CAMPI members). Those with keen memories will recall that the AUV tax exemption pushed many people to drop passenger cars in favor of AUVs at that time, and Honda was selling the 10-seater "AUV" CR-V at this time, also. 2003 was just before the dropping of AUV tax exemptions.

I will try to find a way to get proper statistics from the LTO for 2003, since they don't break down registrations by motor vehicle type in their online statistics. It would be interesting to know how much of that 90,000 unit figure is composed of ban-exempt trucks (2009: over 20,000 trucks registered were NOT built locally brand-new) and how much was sourced from legitimate brand-new importers and manufacturers who were non-CAMPI members.

As it is, I can only give a guess-timate that around 20,000 of those 100,000 vehicles were (ban-exempt) trucks, around 7000 were Ford-Mazdas, around 6000-7000 were probably HARI. That leaves a discrepancy of maybe 70,000 vehicles or less.

Which, granted, is a huge number. But unless the LTO releases accurate records or someone goes through those records one by one, the number of "SUV-ics" included therein will remain unknown. An even bigger unknown is how many of those were smuggled and how many were properly declared. We may never know.

Encouragingly, it points to the government's current drive being somewhat effective at restraining the informal trade of vehicles, if the numbers have dropped to nearly 1/4th that of 2003 levels. ;)

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Hence:
CAMPI Sales, 2009 (non-truck/bus): 131,225
LTO Registrations, 2009 (non-truck/bus/MC): 161,199

Difference: 29,974

Non-CAMPI manufacturer sales: 2000+ (an even more conservative estimate)

Thus: 27,974 units, approximately, not sourced from manufacturers, includes locally assembled "backyard" units, OFW imports, legal brand-new grey market units and smuggled units.

This is 15% of all "brand new" LTO registrations.

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It's unknown whether smuggling and the Subic import phenomenon depressed the local market, delayed recovery, or merely indicated that people simply did not have the budget to buy brand new vehicles after the Asian Economic Crisis of the 90's. And, indeed, brand new registrations are still a fraction of total registrations (taking into account the new 3-year LTO cycle).

Encouragingly, though, it suggests that the government's drive against smuggling may be having a positive effect, but unless statistics gathering is made more comprehensive, we might not know the total cost of smuggling on our local car industry, and whether calls for stricter anti-importation measures are really necessary, or detrimental to the fortunes of local assemblers, traders and consumers.

2010 Montreal GP, ey?

After last weekend's exciting romp across Montreal, I think the FIA would do well to propose that at least half of next year's F1 races be held on freshly-paved track. The 'green' surface of the Giles Villeneuve circuit provided for one of the most exciting races ever, with drivers struggling for grip on the high-speed, low-downforce track and wearing down even the notoriously durable Bridgestone "hard" prime tires down in just over a dozen laps.

It was a sweet victory for Lewis Hamilton, his maiden win and McLaren's first 1-2 of the season. He did it all last weekend, setting a blistering pace in qualifying that the other front-runners struggled to match, and performing a "hero lap" to clinch pole after his early time was eclipsed late in the third session of qualifying as the track rubbered in... on a car running on fumes and on the wrong end of the wear curve on the "soft" option tires.

The race didn't always go his way. Ferrari's Fernando Alonso was on his tailbone for almost the entire race. Those option tires wore down very quickly, and he saw the lead cushion he built up over the Red Bull Racing cars evaporate as Mark Webber overtook him down the main straight... As Mark Webber's Red Bull Racing car zoomed past, Lewis dived into the pits and changed onto the prime tires, and Alonso did the same.

Alonso beat Lewis out of the pits by fractions, and Lewis raced him to the line. He eventually had to settle behind the Spaniard as they chased down the Red Bulls. It soon became evident that the hard tires on the Red Bulls were wearing out incredibly quickly, and they also had to pit. When the dust settled and all the pits had worked themselves out, Mark Webber was in the lead on a long stint in the hards, having made up places all the way to first after a gearbox penalty dropped him from P2 to P7 on raceday; Vettel's RBR had fallen afoul of Jenson Button's Mclaren, the Brit making up time for graining his tires early on in the race; and Lewis Hamilton had overtaken Alonso on a daring dive behind Sebastian Buemi, who was actually racing them for position (Indeed, the Torro Rosso's performance in this race would be headline material if it weren't for all the other drama going on).

Mark Webber had built up a thirteen second gap, but unfortunately would be forced to go onto the soft tires at his next pit stop. He heroically tried to preserve his tires, but it soon became apparent that nothing of the sort would be possible. They were cut to ribbons. Hamilton and Alonso zoomed past him, and after his pits, he had to settle for a distant fourth place. Button, through canny tire conservation, caught up with Alonso and Hamilton, and through backmarker traffic, in which the Spaniard struggled to keep up with Lewis, Button pounced, taking second place from Alonso.

With Hamilton and Button sewing up first and second and Alonso in third, Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel had to settle for fourth and fifth. Vettel, in frustration, asked if he could at least go for "fastest lap", but was informed that his gearbox was on the brink of failure, and that he'd have to take it easy to the checkered flag.

Elsewhere in the order, chaos reigned. Renault's Vitaly Petrov suffered two drive-through penalties, one from a jump-start and one from a collision. Felipe Massa in the other Ferrari fell afoul of a Force India sandwich. Renault's Robert Kubica and Mercedes GP's Michael Schumacher traded paint as Kubica tried to overtake Michael, who was coming out of the pits. Both Saubers failed, and a lot of nose-cones were replaced in frantic pitstops.

After a disastrous start, and an even more disastrous collision with Schumacher, Massa managed to earn some distinction for performing perhaps the best overtake of the day, going three abreast into a chicane. The Force Indias, after falling back down in the order, with Liuzzi replacing his nosecone twice, managed to clinch ninth and tenth by passing a struggling Schumacher... whose many battles and collisions earned him the nickname "Dick Dastardly". I think it'll stick.

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Red Bull Racing downplayed the loss, as many both inside and outside the organization are aware that Montreal is perhaps the track least suited to an RBR that relies on good aerodynamics. In fact, going by the slow motion replays showing relative tire wear, the Ferrari appears to be the car best suited to the high-speed circuit. And yet, McLaren has been pushing them hard for the last few races, and in Turkey, was able to push Vettel to the edge. In this race, McLaren's performance was utterly dominant, with the car a clear two to three-tenths faster than anything else given the same track conditions in qualifying. Whether that results in absolute parity on tracks which favor the RBR is unknown, but the signs are surely pointing in that direction.

Chevrolet Captiva: Who needs Sat-Nav?

Yeah, like you're actually going to do that while taking the kids to school.

Going by what automakers lend us as test units, you'd think that all people are interested in nowadays are SUVs or crossovers. In a country characterized by seasonal typhoons, flash floods, man-eating potholes and cheap diesel, there's probably a good reason for that. But for me and my three and a half person household (I count as two, my daughter counts as half), there's such a thing as too much space.

Of course, I'm not going to complain about shoulder room here. No, that's a topic for another time. But driving with a SatNav-equipped Chevrolet Captiva for a week has got me thinking:

Who needs SatNav?



Granted, it's convenient if you're going someplace you don't know. But how often do you do that? Five to six days a week, we're driving to the same old places. Once a week, we'll go out and do something fun. Probably at the mall, which you can see from kilometers away... maybe leagues away at night when the neon goes on.

Maybe once a month, or, when financially constrained, once every few months, we'll go out on vacation. At that point, SatNav might be useful.

So would a map.

Besides, getting lost is half the fun, isn't it? I've found the neatest restaurants, the most curious little shops... the most interesting backyard museums, exhibits, yard sales, whatever... just by getting lost.

In the meantime, on my daily commute, I will be driving on the exact same roads I always drive, even though the SatNav wants me to get off the highway several kilometers too early (despite being told to prioritize highway routes). And I will end up at the exact same places, even if the SatNav keeps telling me my office is in the middle of a cemetery, for some reason.

Oh well.

Aside from these small niggles, the Captiva was a nice, if utterly inoffensive car. Not my cup of tea. I like my cars obnoxiously loud, stiff and rudely powerful.

Ocean's Thirteen... the Subic jinx

Someone up there must really have it in for me.

Every time I drive up to Subic, something interesting happens.

More specifically, every time I drive to Ocean Adventure Park in Subic, something interesting happens to me.

Ocean Adventure just happens to be the only open-water marine park in all of SouthEast Asia. It features dolphin shows, a sea-lion act, diving shows, etcetera. And it lies just a dozen kilometers or so away from Subic Freeport.

The first time I passed through the area, simply to scope the place out, I was driving a Hyundai Getz test unit... a diesel one... and that car had a host of issues... bad diesel... wobbly engine mounts, tires worn almost bald.

The second time I went, on a lark with some friends, my Ford Lynx developed third-gear pop-out. Sure, it had been grinding third gear for the previous 60,000 kilometers, but I think the dozens of full-bore third-gear downshifts on the highway as we cycled between 80 and 225 km/h had something to do with it. And we never got to go inside... we simply went down to Meat Plus at the Freeport for breakfast.

Third time's the charm. This time, I joined a package tour, and spent the trip there in restful bliss on a nice, big bus. Left with my wife and kid at five in the morning, and had a wonderful time. Sure, we were herded like cattle between shows, and packed like sardines at the venues, but it was fun. Enough fun to drain my digital camera's batteries at the end of the day.


Oh... who lives in a pineapple under the sea?


Relaxing trip!


Coincidentally, the Mini club were doing a Baguio run at the same time. Nice.


The diving act was rather nice...


Batman decides to escape the heat with a quick dip...


Lots of superheroes at the park. here's Superman taking a bath...


One serious advantage of an open-water park over a place like SeaWorld is that tricks like this are easier to pull off given the extra space. Both this and the previous trick were performed by a Pilot whale.


Many of these dolphins were saved from fishing nets.


That was a looooong day trip.

What was I saying again? Oh, yeah... third time's the charm. The bus had developed a knocking sound on the way to Ocean Adventure Park. They "fixed" it at the Subic Freeport, a few kilometers away. On the way home, the knocking came back... and the bus dropped its propeller shaft just a hundred meters short of the Subic-Tipo toll road.

Ouch.


Fixed?


Apparently not.

Turns out the knocking sound was a worn linkage, which they attenpted to repair by welding more material onto the ends of the rods. Now, obviously... or at least obvious to anyone who's shorn a drive-axle while drag-racing... that's not going to work. At least not very long. And yup, the repair lasted all of twenty kilometers.



The back-up shuttle picked us up at the new Total gas station (conveniently located right beside the exit... in the middle of nowhere) at nearly nine in the evening. We got home at around midnight.


Whatinheck is a Daewoo Classia?


Terrible location for a station... thank goodness it was there.

I suppose next time I go to Ocean Adventure, I'll suffer an engine-blowout? Gotta make sure it's not my car we're using next time, then.

For those who aren't absolutely jinxed, though, I'd recommend the trip if you're in the Subic area. It's an interesting way to spend a day.

2010 Ford Fiesta Launch

I suppose I've been remiss in not writing about the Turkish GP, but the shock of what happened during the race has kept me off this subject for long enough that even Webber and Vettel seem to have put the incident behind them... or maybe not...

http://f1.gpupdate.net/en/formula-1-news/236241/red-bull-bury-the-hatchet/


If that actually looks like sincere contrition on Vettel's face, I'm a monkey's uncle. In the meantime, the forums and blogs are abuzz with conspiracy theories that Mark's jedi mind tricks managed to warp time and space so that it only appears that he's driving straight down the track and Vettel is running into him, instead of the other way around. Sneaky Aussie...

Anyway, good boost for Hamilton, who, at this point in the season, seeems to be the only one even close to Red Bull's pace.



In the meantime, we attended the Ford Fiesta car launch the other day. And by launch, we mean sneak-sneak-sneak preview... with the car hermetically sealed so that we can't smudge the paint. It'd be a bad sign, considering Ford showed the previous Fiesta a few years ago (and actually let you stick your nose up to the heavily tinted windows on the right-hand drive test car) but never followed through... BUT... Ford has committed to selling the car.

In October. Ouch.

To make up for the long wait, Ford has bribed us auto-journalists with toy Fiestas.

I love it.





In the meantime, we've got a zillion launches to attend this week... including the new Cayennes and the facelifted Nissan X-Trail. There's simply no rest for the wicked.